Nba Betting Explained
- Nba Sports Betting Explained
- Nba Betting Explained Game
- Nba Betting Picks
- Nba Betting Explained Leaders
The NBA is one of the most popular professional sports leagues not only in the United States, but also around the world. Games are televised in numerous countries of the world and because of its popularity betting on games is in high demand.
NBA Betting Sites
NBA Betting Model Explained This is where it all began. I built my first NBA betting model back in 2013 as a hobby to see if I could crack the NBA betting code. Whether you’re a newbie or a seasoned sports bettor, NBA betting has something for you. With a packed schedule, tons of bets, and nail-biting action, betting real money on the NBA can be both exciting and profitable. When it comes to the betting sites which boast wagering on NBA, gambling. How to Bet NBA & College Basketball - Basketball Betting Explained Single Bet (or Side) The single bet option is done with a point spread. Sports books determine a favorite and an underdog, then assigns each one with a point total.
Betting on the NBA has now become the go-to choice for bettors during the months of February and March. That’s not to say that bettors neglect the rest of the season. NBA gambling has become extremely popular over the last decade or so as bettors no longer view it as just a hobby while football and baseball are not in season.
It is important to do some research to find a reliable sports betting sites if you are interested in betting on NBA basketball. There are a number of reasons why you should do your due diligence in finding a quality offshore sportsbook that fits with your style of betting. It is important to understand some of the basics before you begin betting.
Sportsbook Banking Options
When done the right way, betting on the NBA can be not only fun, but also profitable. After finding a system that works, you are going to want an offshore sportsbook that has a number of different deposit options. This makes it easy for you to send and to receive money.
When starting out, you will have to fund your account. We recommend Bitcoin for deposits because it is a safe and secure method of protecting yoiur money. Once you make a deposit, be sure to check and see that it ended up in your account in a timely fashion. In our experience, we have found Bitcoin to be the fastest way to exchange funds from one account to another. It’s also encrypted and very safe.
Betting Types
NBA Point Spread Bets
The most popular form of betting on NBA games is the point spread bet, also known as sides. Odds makers attempt to ensure each team has a 50-50 chance of winning. They do this by taking what they consider the correct amount of points from the favored team. Take the following example:
Pelicans +6.5 -105
Magic -6.5 -115
In this case, the sportsbook has pegged the Magic being 6.5 points better than the Peliicans. If you bet on the Magic, you only win if they win by seven or more. Instead, you could bet on the Pelicans and you would win if the Pelicans win or if they lose by six points or less. In betting on either team, the -115 means that a wager of $115 will earn a profit of $100 should you win.
NBA Totals
Another popular bet is called NBA Totals. When betting on the totals, you are trying to determine whether the final score of the two teams combined will go over or under the line given by the sportsbook.
For example, let’s take the Heat and the Lakers again. A common NBA Totals bet would look like this:
Over 198.5 -110
Under 198.5 -110
In the example, the sportsbook expects the total number of points in the game to be 198.5. You can place a bet on the total points being over or under 198.5. Again, a $110 bet would earn $100 if you chose correctly.
NBA Money Line
The simplest, most straightforward bet on NBA basketball is the money line wager. In this type of bet, you are betting on one of the teams to win. Unlike the point spread and the NBA Totals bets, the odds here will vary. The favored team will have lower odds and, of course, higher odds on the underdog. In the same Heat-Lakers example, here is how a money line bet would look.
Lakers +280
Heat -300
If you bet on the Heat, you would have to wager $300 to make $100 profit. On the other hand, a $100 bet on the Lakers yields $280. As you can see, the odds here are much more favorable on the Lakers than the Heat.
In each of these types of bets, a sportsbook will offer odds based on a $100 bet. You can wager any amount though and you will be paid out on a pro-rata basis. For instance, if you simply bet $10 on the Lakers on a money line bet, you would win $28.
Parlay/Teaser
There is the opportunity to combine, or parlay, bets in order to increase payouts. You can parlay NBA bets in an attempt to win big, but for your parlay to win ALL of the bets must cover. You can combine spread, totals, and money line bets to increase the payout of a parlay.
Nba Sports Betting Explained
A teaser bet is essentially the same as a parlay, but the sportsbook gives you points to increase your odds of winning. While your chances of winning increase, your payouts decrease. For example, you could wager on a 4-point teaser and the Celtics spread is -10. This 4-point advantage is included in each part of the teaser bet.
NBA Futures Betting
In addition to betting on individual games, you will also find betting markets for the long term. These are known as NBA futures bets. A prime example of an NBA futures bet is picking the winner of the NBA Finals. You can make this bet long before a regular season even begins and continue to place bets on it throughout the regular season and postseason.
Nba Betting Explained Game
Betting on the winners of the Conference Finals is another NBA futures bet. You can also bet on division winners as well as who will win the league’s MVP. You can receive more information on the NBA futures bets page of our website.
This is where it all began. I built my first NBA betting model back in 2013 as a hobby to see if I could crack the NBA betting code. I had already dipped my toe into sports betting, but the idea of manually handicapping each game seemed incredibly time-consuming and left myself vulnerable to my own biases and assumptions – which as a passionate Chicago sports fan, I had plenty (read: fuck the Packers).
I am a hyper-analytical person though and have always loved reading through stats in all sports, so creating a model made a lot of sense to me. Without much of a statistics background, my initial model was incredibly basic, but I could see the potential. I had played and watched basketball all my life, so I understood which stats and information could predict the outcome of a game. I had also read a few books in my day, so I was a bit more open to analytics than Charles Barkley.
Since then, I've added a few more ingredients each season to my model. It is still relatively simple compared to other predictive models, so I won’t be working at FiveThirtyEight anytime soon, but it’s been successful nonetheless. Now, I unfortunately cannot give away every little detail. I want this site to be as transparent as possible, but at the same time I value my model and the work I’ve put into it. I will, however, go over the basics so you know what I consider for my projections and can feel more comfortable subscribing to my picks if you decide to do so.
First, the base of my model utilizes advanced statistics known as efficiency metrics. Since teams are limited in time by both the game clock and the shot clock, basketball is all about efficiency. Maximizing points scored and minimizing points allowed on each possession is the base of success on the hardwood.
Before I go deeper, it's important to understand how efficiency stats work. Since game totals can vary widely based on the teams playing (the slow, methodical Grizzlies and Jazz would have a much lower score than a game with the high-flying Rockets and Warriors), these stats adjust for pace (or possessions per game). Two of the basic efficiency stats, offensive and defensive rating, measure how many points a team scores and allows per 100 possessions. 100 is used because this is near the league average of possessions per game (101.13 currently for 2017) and it makes the stats look similar to average total scores.
The algorithms I have created with my model produce a predicted score based on how efficient each team is on offense and defense. I use more than just team offensive and defensive efficiency, however, as there are more variables that contribute to game outcomes and cause a team's efficiency to vary based on their opponent. The main variables include pace, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, and rebounding rate. These all help give us a general idea of how a game will go, and I have weighted each stat in my model to reflect how much they affect a game.
Nba Betting Picks
If you follow the NBA closely though, you know that rest is also a huge factor in a team's performance. If Team A is on a long road trip and playing their second game in two nights, while Team B is home after two days off, you can confidently assume that Team B will perform better. It's not a guarantee, but the fatigue of playing and traveling is very likely to negatively affect Team A. Therefore, I factor a team's schedule into my model. In this example, Team A is downgraded and Team B is upgraded due to the imbalance of rest.
ESPN has put out a great article the past two seasons discussing this and what head coaches call schedule losses. They are situations where a team is at a large disadvantage due to their schedule (and their opponent's). ESPN highlights these games in this article and is a great tool for handicapping. It is updated each month for the next games to watch for. My model does something similar by measuring how teams do in certain schedule situations over the season. Since the general public doesn't consider this, it's a great way to find an edge.
Similarly, there is another variable to watch for with these scheduling issues. For those that don't regularly watch the NBA, it has become a common practice to rest healthy players. Due to the grind of the NBA season, especially with back-to-backs (two games in two nights) three-in-fours (three games in four nights), and long road trips, coaches may choose to give top players a night off to recover. The NBA has improved this issue the past few seasons and has eliminated the grueling four games in five nights, but this is still an important factor to consider.
Nba Betting Explained Leaders
Because of this, there can be a problem with merely using team statistics. Like my baseball model, I need to account for who is actually playing each day. That is why I incorporate their own individual efficiency stats along with their usage rate and average minutes per game to estimate their impact if a main starter is out of the line-up.
For example, the Cavaliers have a 109.0 offensive efficiency rating while LeBron James has an individual offensive rating of 111.5 (which means the Cavs score 111.5 points per 100 possessions with LeBron on the court). With a usage rate of 30.4% (12th most in the NBA) and averaging 38 minutes per game (2nd most), the Cavs offensive rating will be significantly less if LeBron sits out a game. My model attempts to estimate this drop-off.
By blending all this information together after years of testing and tinkering, my model spits out an impressively accurate projected score for each game and first half. If the projected score varies enough from the current odds, I make it a play and send that pick to my subscribers. I created a first half version of my model for this season, and it is off to an incredibly hot start.
So that's the main idea behind my model and all the metrics I consider. If your head hasn’t exploded yet from all the geek talk, then thank you for reading! Like I said, I can’t give away the exact formulas, but I want you to know the basic concept if you are considering subscribing to my picks or want to build your own model. If you are interested in building your own, feel free to ask me a question about where I get certain stats, how to get started, or anything else that comes to mind.
And lastly, if you would like access to my model’s picks and all my sports betting plays, then subscribe to Fast Break MVP now! You can find more details about my picks service here, and if you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me or send me a direct message on Twitter.
Thanks for reading!
- Stephen